1. Market Snapshot
Bitcoin opened the first full week of June on a cautious note, dipping toward the $105 000 liquidity pocket as CME futures dragged price lower in Asian hours. Volatility quickly faded, but traders remain tense: the calendar is stuffed with high-impact macro events, sticky inflation, and an ongoing tariff tug-of-war in Washington.
2. Short-Term Holders Slip Into Loss
On-chain data show the Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spend-Output Profit Ratio) falling marginally below 1 (≈ 0.99) for the first time since April. Translation: wallets that acquired BTC in the past 1–6 months are on average underwater. In past cycles, a dip below 1 often signaled that quick profit-taking had run its course—setting the stage for a rebound if broader support holds.
Key support cluster:
- $96 900 – $104 200: Realized price zone for 1-week-to-6-month coins
- Psychological $100 000: Still defended on spot books
A decisive break — or hold — of this band will likely dictate sentiment for the rest of June.
3. Whales & Corporates Keep Buying
200 k BTC Added Since March
Addresses holding 1 000–10 000 BTC have expanded balances from 3.3 M to 3.5 M BTC since mid-March—roughly $13 B in fresh coin. Even during last week’s pullback, these wallets absorbed 6 000+ BTC.
Strategy & Metaplanet Top Up
- Strategy: another 705 BTC for $75.1 M, lifting its stack to 580 955 BTC (avg. $70 023).
- Metaplanet (Japan): bought 1 088 BTC ($117.9 M); now holds 8 888 BTC, moving to #8 among public companies.
Whale accumulation helps explain why exchange reserves fell 668 000 BTC since November 2024. Spot platforms still sit on ~250 B of coin, but the multi-year drain underscores investor confidence in long-term self-custody.
4. Altcoins Still Waiting for FOMO
Total alt-cap remains pinned despite Bitcoin’s grind higher. Continuous token unlocks (≈ $369 M this week across SOL, TIA, DOGE, TAO, etc.) plus soft retail demand keep liquidity thin. However, two new U.S. regulatory twists could light a fuse:
- SEC memo says self-staking does not automatically create a securities transaction—paving the way for yield-bearing ETH spot ETFs.
- Department of Labor rescinds 2020 guidance that discouraged crypto in 401(k) retirement plans, handing fiduciaries freedom to allocate.
Either change could channel fresh institutional flow into ETH and broader PoS assets—but the market wants proof before bidding altcoins.
5. Macro Calendar: A Data Minefield
| Day | Time (ET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jun 2 | 10:00 | ISM Mfg PMI | Growth pulse; below 50 = contraction |
| 14:00 | Powell speech | Global role of the Fed—rate hints? | |
| Tue Jun 3 | 10:00 | JOLTS job openings | Labor tightness feeds wage inflation |
| Wed Jun 4 | 08:15 | ADP payrolls | Private-sector hiring ahead of NFP |
| 10:00 | ISM Services PMI | 70 % of US GDP; big market mover | |
| Thu Jun 5 | 08:30 | Initial jobless claims | Sentiment gauge for layoffs |
| Fri Jun 6 | 08:30 | Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Avg Hourly Wages | The big one—sets Fed cut odds |
Rumors of Jerome Powell’s resignation are swirling online after last week’s one-on-one meeting with President Trump. A departure is highly unlikely—but even the chatter highlights political pressure for lower rates.
6. Tariff Tug-of-War Adds Noise
Courts briefly froze, then reinstated Trump-era global tariffs, whipsawing risk assets. Trump warns an unfavorable ruling would let foreign nations “hold America hostage.” Markets hate uncertainty, and tariff headlines may inject intraday volatility—especially for USD and Treasury yields.
7. ETF Flows & Exchange Balance Sheet
- Spot-Bitcoin ETFs: six-week $9.6 B inflow streak ended with –$347 M last week.
- Digital asset ETPs overall still pulled $286 M net as ETH funds logged $321 M.
- Total crypto ETP AUM dipped from $187 B → $177 B on price action—not exits.
Net takeaway: structural demand remains intact; last week looked like tactical profit-taking.
8. Technical Levels & Weekend Volatility
- Support: $100 000 psychological; $96 900–$104 200 realized-price band
- Resistance: $109 200 liquidity pocket; $111 000 larger cluster
- Funding Rate: mildly positive, near multi-month median—no leverage blow-off yet
- Open Interest: down four straight sessions—cooling speculation
Friday evenings have delivered surprise moves four weeks in a row; traders should expect fireworks once Wall Street closes.
Conclusion – A Pivot in Plain Sight?
The bitcoin week preview shows a market balanced between short-term losses and massive long-term conviction:
- Negative SOPR hints profit-taking is spent.
- Whale + corporate buys drain supply at $100 k.
- Regulatory shifts could unlock ETH staking ETFs and retirement-fund allocations.
- Macro wild cards (Powell speech, NFP, tariff rulings) keep volatility elevated.
Hold the $100 k region, and the stage is set for the next leg higher once data clarity returns. Break below, and $96 k–$97 k becomes the battleground. Either way, liquidity is tightening—and disciplined bulls are using every dip to accumulate.
Watch our 60-second recap: YouTube Short – 104K Bitcoin Dip-Whales Buy | Crypto News Update 06/02
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BlockMinute offers news and educational content only. Nothing herein constitutes financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed advisor before investing.
