1. Market Snapshot — Calm Masking Accumulation
Bitcoin kicked off the week with choppy price action around $105 000. CME-futures selling tugged price lower in Asia, only for spot bids to lift it back above six-figure support. Beneath the surface, however, the bitcoin liquidity paradox keeps intensifying:
- Exchange net-outflows: –3 600 BTC per day since 10 March.
- ETF flows: –$267 M yesterday, yet the six-week tally still shows +$9.3 B.
- Whale purchases: Addresses holding 1 000–10 000 BTC added 200 k BTC in under 90 days.
These metrics tell a different story from the daily candles: long-term conviction is expanding.
2. Strategy’s New War Chest: STRD Shares Explained
2.1 What Was Announced?
MicroStrategy revealed STRD, a perpetual preferred-stock class aimed at institutions and “qualified” investors. Key traits:
| Feature | STRD | Older STRF |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend | Up to 10 %, optional | 7.5 %, mandatory & cumulative |
| Voting rights | None | None |
| Priority in insolvency | Junior | Senior |
| Purpose | Raise $250 M for more BTC | Previous $800 M rounds |
Result: Strategy can raise capital without diluting common shares— crucial after multiple equity offerings previously weighed on MSTR’s price.
2.2 Why It Matters
- More buying pressure: even a half-funded STRD round adds ~2 000 BTC at $120 k.
- Leverage risk: dividends aren’t guaranteed; investors essentially take an equity-like bet on Bitcoin’s upside with credit-like downside.
- Corporate precedent: if demand is strong, expect other public companies to replicate the model.
3. Altcoins at a Critical Crossroads
Alt-market cap dominance (ex-stablecoins) hovers at 25 %—a support zone that historically precedes multi-week alt rallies. Strip out Ethereum and dominance teeters just above 18 %, touched only four times since 2017. Yet headwinds remain:
- Token unlocks: $369 M in SOL, TIA, DOGE, TAO this week.
- Retail apathy: Google-Trends and exchange sign-ups remain subdued.
- Project purge: CoinMarketCap delisted 10 % of tracked coins in two months.
If dominance cracks 18 %, another leg of capitulation is likely. Hold, and the groundwork for an eventual alt-season is in place.
4. The Liquidity Paradox — Rising M2 vs. High Rates
4.1 M2 Money Supply Hits Fresh ATH
Global liquidity jumped $1.55 T last week (+1.13 %), even while U.S. policy rates sit near cycle highs. Normally, higher yields attract capital, boosting the USD Index. Instead, the DXY is testing 2024 lows, signalling:
- Markets expect rate cuts sooner than the Fed’s dot-plot implies.
- Political gridlock (tariff flip-flops) and fiscal deficits erode dollar confidence.
- A weaker dollar lowers real debt burdens abroad, freeing non-U.S. liquidity.
4.2 Why Bitcoin Benefits
- Cheaper dollars historically correlate with higher BTC prices as global investors hunt inflation hedges.
- Liquidity + negative real yields make hard-cap assets attractive.
- If the Fed pivots, today’s M2 spike could become “nitro” for speculative assets.
5. Macro Calendar & Powell Rumours
| Date | Event | Market focus |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Jun | ISM Mfg PMI 10:00, Powell speech 19:00 ET | Any hint of dovishness fuels cut bets |
| Tue 3 Jun | JOLTS Job Openings | Labor tightness vs. wage inflation |
| Wed 4 Jun | ADP Payrolls, ISM Services | Early read before NFP |
| Thu 5 Jun | Weekly Jobless Claims | Layoff trend |
| Fri 6 Jun | Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Avg Wages | Sets rate-cut odds into July |
Social media churns with speculation that Powell could resign after a closed-door meeting with Trump. Odds are tiny, but mere whispers highlight political pressure for cheaper money.
6. Technical Levels & Funding
- Support: $103 500 → $102 600 liquidity shelf; major band $96 900–$104 200 (Realized Prices).
- Resistance: $109 300 cluster; $111 000 & ATH liquidity above.
- Open Interest: four-day slide shows leverage cooling.
- Funding Rate: mildly positive—watch for spikes that could trigger liquidations.
If price holds six-figure support while funding stays tame, the path of least resistance remains higher once macro fog clears.
7. Conclusion — Setting Up the Next Move
- The bitcoin liquidity paradox—surging money supply, falling dollar, high rates—suggests an eventual liquidity wave.
- Strategy keeps engineering new ways to lever into BTC, signalling unshaken corporate conviction.
- Altcoins stand at a make-or-break dominance line; retail enthusiasm remains the missing ingredient.
In short: fundamentals quietly firm, but headline risk (tariffs, jobs data, Powell rumours) will steer sentiment day-to-day. Keep your eyes on net-flows and the dollar; they’ll likely tip the next big move.
Watch our 60-second recap:
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Disclaimer
BlockMinute offers news and educational content only. Nothing herein constitutes financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed advisor before investing.
